NBABet News – NBABet’s 4 best bets from Wednesday’s games

Find out how Action Network’s betting analysts are taking on Wednesday night’s games, including Clippers vs. Warriors.

Wednesdays are always loaded for the NBA, but today’s slate is even more relevant with no games scheduled for Thanksgiving.

With 12 games on the schedule and two national TV matchups anchoring tonight’s action – Mavericks vs. Celtics (7:30pm ET) and Clippers vs. Warriors (10:00pm ET) – our crew has four bets on the Today’s games compiled.

Check out their betting analysis and best bets for Wednesday night below.

NBA Odds & Tips

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

Choose Timberwolves -1.5
A book fan duel
Tip 7 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: The Indiana Pacers are overrated here after beating terrible teams five times in a row. If you look at the teams they’ve played against, you can see they’re all in the bottom five in adjusted net standings, save for the Toronto Raptors, who were missing Pascal Siakam and Fred Vanvleet. It’s also worth noting that two of their five wins came against the Orlando Magic, missing their leading scorer Paolo Banchero.

This team is generally overrated right now, but I think the Timberwolves have some matchup advantages that they can capitalize on as well. The Timberwolves should be able to thrive against this holey Indiana defense.

Indiana has been playing good ball lately, but it was mostly down to their offense. Her defense still ranks 24th in the adjusted defense rating, despite playing the second-easiest schedule of opposing dunks and threes attacks. They were particularly bad at defending the rim, allowing the sixth-highest rim rate in the NBA.

This is a recipe for disaster against a Minnesota major offense who loves to attack the rim and holds sixth place in the rim rating herself. Another advantage for the Wolves is their transition defense. The Minnesota defense ranks ninth in the transition rate, and that’s huge when you’re up against this Indiana offense, which ranks third in the transition frequency.

This Indiana team wants to play fast, but if they’re forced to play half court, they’ll drop from eighth in points per 100 to 15th. So they’re essentially an average halfway offense, and I would expect their offense to struggle against a Minnesota defense, which is second best on halfway defense and only allows 92 points per 100 possessions.

Trust the Timberwolves to continue their four-game winning streak this Thanksgiving.


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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

Choose Pacer +2
A book DraftKings

Austin Wang: I’m on the other side of this encounter. The Pacers continue their good start to the season with a 9-6 record and 10-5 ATS after being predicted as one of the worst teams in the league.

The Pacers sit seventh in offensive rating and have recently made it up to fifth by finishing fifth in their last five games. Her offense was a well-oiled machine with standout third-year Tyrese Haliburton helming the show. Despite an easy schedule, as noted by Chris (Magic twice, Rockets, Hornets, and injury-plagued Raptors), I think they’ll do well against Wolves.

The Pacers are shooting 3-points well — 4th in 3-point rate (45.7% of total field goal attempts) and 10th in 3-point percentage (37.2%). Conversely, the Timberwolves are ranked 23rd in their opponents’ 3-point percentage allowed (36.6%). With the addition of Rudy Gobert, the paint is crowded with bigs and the outside defense has suffered.

Also, the Pacers are excellent at transitioning, with Haliburton leading the way. They are second in fastbreak points (17.4), while Wolves are 21st in fastbreak points. Wolves are adept at scoring in colour, but the presence of Myles Turner has meant they are No. 1 in terms of opponent’s points in legal colour.

This Wolves team has underperformed this season as they adjust to life with Gobert, but are finding their footing on a four-game win streak. You may have figured it out, but I see a lot of advantages in favor of the Pacers.

As of 2016, home teams on Thanksgiving Eve are 38-21-1 ATS (64.4%) according to SDQL at Killer Sports. I support the Pacers here as a home underdog.


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Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Choose dollars -6.5
A book fan duel
Tip 8 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass

Corey Parson: So far this season, betting on home favorites has not been profitable for NBA bettors – 80-85-3 ATS (48%). However, the Bucks have emerged as home favorites. On the season, the Bucks are the fourth most profitable team against the spread at home in the NBA with 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home, according to Bet Labs.

FanDuel opened this game with the Bulls as a 7.5-point favorite, but that number is down a point overnight. The grand total started at 218 and has since increased to 223. The over has conceded in three of the Bucks’ last four games.

The Bucks are the chalk side tonight, but the truth is they are simply leagues ahead of the Bulls and should cover this number with no problem.


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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors

Choose Andrew Wiggins, under 2.5 assists (-145)
A book PointsBet
Tip 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Tyler Smith: For the second time this season, the Warriors rested almost all of their starters on the road against the Pelicans. They lost both games, but their most recent loss was 45 points as they still have a sub-.500 record at 8-10. With everyone back, the Warriors are near double-digit home favorites against the Clippers.

After earning a big contract just before the start of the season, Andrew Wiggins has averaged 18.4 points per game while shooting a career-best 49.3% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He also averages a career-high 5.6 rebounds per game. Wiggins even increased his steals.

The main area where Wiggins continues to struggle is in assist capture. He averages 2.1 assists per game and hasn’t produced three or more assists in seven straight games. This assist prop on FanDuel feels like a great bet as Wiggins projected 1.4 assists for our model, which is well below the prop line.

The Clippers are without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they still have the second-highest defensive rating in the league (106.8) and are attending today’s games. They only allow 105.8 points and 22.8 assists per game, both of which rank in the top five defensively. In his last seven games, Wiggins has averaged 4.7 potential assists, which ranks fifth among the Warriors.


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