NFL Week 12 odds tips: Cowboys thrash Giants on Thanksgiving, Steelers oust Colts Monday night

And just like that, it’s Thanksgiving. We’re nearly two-thirds into the 2022 regular season, and we can now indulge in some turkey and stuffing to celebrate. We also have a great trio of Thanksgiving games to sink our teeth into once the tryptophan kicks in and we curl up in our couches.

Of course, some of those Thanksgiving games made their way into my five locks of the week for week 12, along with a few other games on deck later this weekend, including a “Monday Night Football” match and a team we’re supporting , which puts double digits at home.

Record 2022

regular season
Castles of the week ATS
: 25-26-4
ATS: 72-86-6
ML: 97-67

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys-10

This has the makings of a Cowboys loss almost identical to Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just days ago. New York showed some cracks in its foundation in the loss to Detroit, losing several key figures including top cornerback Adoree ‘Jackson. That should allow the Cowboys offense to keep buzzing, but it’s their defense that could really end the game. The Giants are allowing the second-highest pressure rate (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys are putting the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times to win, which is the third most of any game this season. With the Giants doing as they are and Dallas playing at the championship level, they’re going to win this by double digits.

Estimated score: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
The selection: Cowboys -9.5

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins -13.5

The Texans could very well make a quarterback change before or during this game, but the view of this matchup remains largely the same. Miami wrapped up their Week 11 sendoff and is currently No. 2 in the AFC and is still undefeated (7-0) if Tua Tagovailoa plays a full game. Hard Rock Stadium has also been friendly to the Dolphins lately as they have been 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins have already shown us they can earn points by scoring 30 or more points in the three games leading up to the bye, and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again as they face a Texas hit defense, which is ranked 29th in the DVOA. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense hasn’t surpassed 20 points since Week 7.

Estimated score: Dolphins 33, Texans 17
The selection: Dolphins -13

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts -2.5

yes i am stubborn I’ve been fading the colts in my locks for the past two weeks and Jeff Saturday burned me both times. Well, I’m going back to the well again, which might be a reason to call myself clinically insane, but the Steelers are the club for the back at this point. Pittsburgh should be able to put pressure on Matt Ryan as Indy’s O-line showed some cracks, allowing pressure on 11.1% of Ryan’s dropbacks on Sunday against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Steelers are blitzing as much as any other team in the league entering Week 12, meaning TJ Watt should celebrate with this favorable matchup. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s run-defense ranks in the NFL’s top 10 in the DVOA, suggesting the unit has the ability to slow down Jonathan Taylor.

Estimated score: Steelers 23, Colts 21
The selection: Radiant +2.5

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions +9.5

The Lions have been turning for the past few weeks but I’m just having a hard time betting against Josh Allen with that double digit line. Yes, Detroit’s defense has played better in the last three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo’s offense is a whole different beast. Allen has played well on Thanksgiving in the past, as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB recorded a 100-plus passer rating in every contest. While I believe Buffalo’s offense at Ford Field can get into the 30s in the 30s, I don’t see the Lions in that environment. Specifically, I have my doubts about protection from Jared Goff. Detroit is the 24th pass-blocking team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass rush team in the league by the same rating system.

Estimated score: Bills 33, lions 21
The selection: Bills -9.5

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Brown’s +3.5

Tampa Bay seemed to turn a corner just before saying goodbye. After combining in Week 9 to beat the Rams and then oust the Seahawks – who were a 2.5-point favorite – in Germany, it feels like the Bucs are about to ship the ship to restore completely. They ran the ball well in Week 10 (161 yards on 44 attempts) and Tom Brady looked good with his healthy receivers. Meanwhile, they’re getting a Browns team who may face disappointment after giving the Bills a run for their money on Sunday and are on the verge of getting Deshaun Watson back next week. Since Kevin Stefanski arrived in Cleveland, the club has been at 17-26 ATS, which is the second-worst ATS mark in the NFL over that period.

Estimated score: Buccaneers 27, Brown’s 20
The selection: Buccaneers -3.5

rest of the bunch

Patriots at Vikings
Estimated score: Vikings 24, Patriots 17
The selection: Vikings -2.5

Bengal at Titans
Estimated score: Titans 24, Bengal 23
The selection: Titans +1.5

Bears at Jets
Estimated score: Jets 26, Bears 20
The selection: Nozzles -4.5

Falcons at commanders
Estimated score: Commanders 26, Falcons 20
The selection: Commanders -4.5

Broncos at Panthers
Estimated score: Panthers 23, Broncos 17
The selection: Panthers +2.5

Ravens at Jaguars
Estimated score: Jaguars 24, ravens 23
The selection: Jaguars +4

Chargers at Cardinals
Estimated score: Chargers 30, Cardinals 23
The selection: Chargers -4.5

Raiders at Seahawks
Estimated score: Seahawks 27, Raiders 23
The selection: Seahawks -3.5

Rams at Chiefs
Estimated score: Chiefs 30, Rams 20
The selection: Aries +14.5

Saints at 49ers
Estimated score: 49ers 30, Saints 23
The selection: Holy +9

Packers at Eagles
Estimated score: Eagle 33, Packer 23
The selection: Eagle -7


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